
Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest | 13 Sep 2025, 14:30 TRT
Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest: Control vs. Counterattacks at the Emirates
Form and context
Arsenal will "want to bounce back" after a defeat before the international break, and Forest also entered the break with a loss — creating a tense restart for both. The lunchtime kickoff has its peculiar oddity: Arsenal typically tends to establish early pressure at home, a pattern Forest needs to overcome.
Recent H2H figures still support the Gunners in North London — Arsenal won 3-0 at the Emirates in November 2024 — but fixtures at City Ground have been tighter, including a 0-0 in February 2025. This distinction points to the central truth of the matchup: When Arsenal can pin Forest back, chances come in clusters; when Forest keeps the center compact, the game turns into a grind.
Tactical themes to watch
Arsenal's 3-2-5 in possession: Under Mikel Arteta, Arsenal's attacking back defensive platform and five-lane setup are designed to suffocate the middle third. Expect Martin Zubimendi (summer transfer) to manage circulation and Eberechi Eze to roam between the lines.
Forest's compact mid-block and counters: Nuno's teams enjoy narrowing the game: tight lines, short distances, and spring-like transitions. The first outlet pass — often to a wide runner or Morgan Gibbs-White between the lines — must be clean to beat Arsenal's counter-press.
Key battles, selection, and outlook
Gyökeres vs. Forest center-backs: Arsenal's ability to pin the last line — engaging both center-backs and the weak-side full-back — determines whether the hosts live in or in front of Forest's penalty area.
Eze/Zubimendi vs. Forest's pivot: If Arsenal can receive the ball on a half-turn between the lines, they create shooting lanes at the top of the box; if Forest effectively screens and blocks these turns, they force Arsenal wide and into lower-probability crosses.
Prediction: Models lean towards Arsenal — about a two-thirds win probability — due to home advantage, chance creation, and Forest's instability. A low-scoring Arsenal win (1-0 or 2-0) is the most likely scenario, though a draw is alive if Forest keeps turnovers clean and extracts value from set-pieces.